Interview: Decoding the Streaming Wars with Rigatoni Capital

Deep dive on why I’m buying the $NFLX dip and the structural decay of Versant ($VSNT)

Accrued Interest TL/DR:

• Watch the Interview: I joined Rigatoni Capital to discuss these thesis points in detail. Link to substack and YouTube video below.

• Netflix is a Buy: The market is mispricing the Warner Bros. deal execution risk; the “uncertainty” is an opportunity to buy a compounder at ~22x 2027 earnings.

• Ad-Tech is the Key: Netflix’s ad tier is just getting started, with fill rates and ad loads set to expand significantly as they build out their sales organization.

• Versant is a Trap: $VSNT is a “melting ice cube” facing a massive revenue cliff in 2028 when it loses the NBCUniversal halo.

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If you have been reading Accrued Interest for a while, you know my golden rule: the market narrative is often messy, but the structural reality is usually clear if you know where to look.

This week, I had the pleasure of sitting down with Colin from Rigatoni Capital for a wide-ranging discussion on the current state of the Technology, Media, and Telecom (TMT) sectors. (This podcast was recorded on January 29th, 2026)

If you aren’t already following Rigatoni Capital , you should be. Colin is a sharp investor who asks the tough questions that actually matter to the buy-side, rather than just skimming the surface of earnings headlines. It was a great conversation that went beyond the consensus views and dug into the "why" behind my current ratings.

We spent a solid hour breaking down the mechanics of the Netflix/Warner Bros. deal, why the market is mispricing execution risk, and why I believe the structural decline of linear TV is creating traps for value investors in names like Versant.

I am grateful for the opportunity to share my thesis with the Rigatoni Capital audience. You can watch the full interview above or on YouTube.

Below is a detailed roadmap of the topics we covered so you can jump to the sections that interest you most.

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Interview Roadmap

[00:00] Intro & The “Accrued Interest” Strategy We kick things off discussing my background in media and Wall Street (Goldman Sachs), and how a proprietary research process led to a ~3,400% time-weighted return from 2016-2024.

[01:45] Netflix ($NFLX): Buying the Dip Why the post-earnings sell-off is a gift. We discuss the Warner Bros. acquisition, why the “uncertainty” is your friend, and why the deal is actually a massive defensive moat against Big Tech.

[05:30] The “Financial Engineering” Trap I explain why I prefer companies that reinvest for growth over those that rely solely on buybacks to prop up EPS.

[10:30] The Sony Signpost Why the Netflix/Sony $7B licensing deal is the perfect “sanity check” that validates the $82B price tag for Warner Bros.

[18:00] The Ad-Tier Sleeping Giant A deep dive into Netflix’s ad-tech stack. We discuss why fill rates are currently low (estimates around 45%) and why the build-out of their internal sales organization is a bullish signal for 2026 revenue growth.

[22:00] Ad Load Economics Comparing the “painful” 22-minute ad load of linear TV to Netflix’s slim 4-6 minute load. There is massive pricing power here as Netflix slowly turns the dial.

[28:00] The Bundle vs. The Standalone We discuss a key distinction: most competitors (Disney+, Hulu, Max) are growing via aggressive “mini-bundles” to reduce churn. Netflix is the rare service people still sign up for individually. The Warner Bros. deal opens up immense bundling opportunities for Netflix that the market is ignoring.

[30:00] The “Binge” Model Debate We debate the merits of the binge drop vs. weekly releases. I argue that weekly releases are a retention tool for weaker services (like HBO) that suffer from high churn, whereas Netflix’s library depth allows it to serve viewers however they want.

[33:00] Versant ($VSNT): The Value Trap We pivot to my “Avoid/Underperform” rating on Versant. I explain why this spinoff is a collection of assets that should not be public, and why the 2028 expiration of the NBCUniversal partnership creates a massive revenue cliff.

[36:00] Breaking Up Versant If you are looking for value in $VSNT, it isn’t in the equity—it’s in the breakup. We discuss who should buy CNBC (Bloomberg? Reuters?) and the hidden value of GolfNow.

[38:00] AppLovin ($APP): The AI Ad-Tech Play Why I ignore the short reports. We discuss AppLovin’s “Axon” engine, its incredible margins, and why it provides the one thing advertisers want most: a scalable alternative to Meta and Google.

[43:00] Meta ($META): CapEx vs. Growth Why I am comfortable with Zuckerberg’s massive AI spending as long as ad impressions continue to accelerate sequentially.

[46:00] Duolingo ($DUOL): The Short Thesis Why I believe Duolingo will underperform in 2026. It’s not about whether the app teaches you French; it’s about a monetization curve that is flattening while the AI threat looms large.

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A huge thank you to Colin for having me on. If you enjoyed the conversation, make sure to subscribe to Rigatoni Capital for more great interviews and posts.

And there is plenty more coming on Accrued Interest. Be sure to subscribe below and check back soon for my takes on Meta’s earnings from last week, my analysis of Disney’s earnings today, and more coverage as the rest of the season unfolds.

-Accrued Interest

Relevant Tickers: AMCX 0.00%↑ , APP 0.00%↑ , CMSA 0.00%↑ , DIS 0.00%↑ , DUOL 0.00%↑ , GOOG 0.00%↑ GOOGL 0.00%↑ , HOOD 0.00%↑ META 0.00%↑ , NFLX 0.00%↑ , PSKY 0.00%↑ , UBER 0.00%↑ , VSNT 0.00%↑

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Disclaimer: The information presented in this Substack is for educational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions regarding the prospects of any company discussed here, as I am not a registered investment advisor.

You can always reach me at simeon@accruedint.com.