Accrued Interest Weekly Cypher: July 26, 2026
Week-in-Review: Paywall Drops, Paramount Hits Pause, and Everybody Suddenly Hates Google Again
Welcome to Volume 6 of the Accrued Interest Weekly Cypher for the week ending July 26, 2026! Consider this your “in-case-you-missed-it” digest to help you catch up over the weekend.
Accrued Interest TLDR: A big week around here. Accrued Interest went paid, and on day one we premiered at #1 on Substack’s Rising in Business leaderboard! I also dropped my initiating coverage on Nintendo, a 6,000-word deep dive. On Friday, Paramount Skydance agreed to freeze the Warner Bros. Discovery merger until as late as June 1, 2027. And this Wednesday’s subscriber-only piece will start making the case that Netflix and NBCUniversal belong under the same roof. Lastly, Google got punished for spending too much money, which has me asking the same question I always ask: what actually changed?
Now, let’s cue the record drop and dive into this week’s cypher.
1. Thank You, Accrued Interest Premiered at #1 Rising Business!
First off, I want to send a huge thank you to all of my subscribers!!!
This week, Accrued Interest launched its paywall after being 100% free for over a year. I am happy to report that on day one we premiered at number one on the Rising in Business leaderboard for all of Substack.
I want to give a huge thank you, particularly, to all of the subscribers who pledged their support. I could not have hit that leaderboard without all of my pledges. For a short time my site was ahead of Steve Eisman, the guy from The Big Short, and that’s something I will never forget!
My goal is to keep providing enough value that more of you convert to the paid tier over time and get the full experience.
2. I Initiated Coverage on Nintendo
Secondly, as a big thank you to all of the paid subscribers, I dropped my initiating coverage on Nintendo on Wednesday: “Nintendo Is Not the Apple of Video Games.” I may be biased, but I think this report is honestly worth an annual subscription alone.
Fun fact: I was originally going to do a three-part Nintendo series, but I decided to combine it into one article. I know the piece is a bit dense, but I wanted to publish the entire thesis ahead of Nintendo’s earnings report on August 6.
At 6,000 words, this is the longest deep dive I have written on Accrued Interest. (Don’t worry, I will not be dropping these every week!)
One of the sections I have not seen reproduced anywhere else is where I explain how console games have been losing share to PC. Add in rising memory costs and the hardware price increases coming in September, and the “buy the dip” story gets a lot more complicated.
Anyways, I recommend you upgrade your subscription, because this is the start of more coverage of the video game industry overall.
3. Paramount + WBD Just Got Frozen
Next, I want to follow up on some news from Friday that validates my bearish stance on Paramount Skydance.
On Friday, Paramount agreed to delay the WBD acquisition until five days after an antitrust trial is held, or June 1, 2027, whichever comes first. Two things stand out.
First, June 1, 2027 is roughly when the merger agreement expires. Even in the best-case scenario for Paramount, this pushes closing from Sep-2026 to the middle of 2027.
Second, the meter is running. Paramount wanted to close before Sep-30, because after that date a “ticking fee” kicks in: an additional 25 cents per WBD share, per quarter, until closing. That is roughly $650 million in cash every quarter, or about $7 million a day. A delay out to June 2027 could add roughly $1.7 billion to the price. And if the whole thing collapses, Paramount owes WBD a $7 billion breakup fee.
I want to remind readers that my last deep dive on Paramount was on July 15: “The Math Behind the Merger: Why the States’ Case Against PSKY + WBD Is Winnable ($PSKY, $WBD).”
I have been banging the drum all year that investors in Paramount + WBD were being far too complacent. Together or separately, both of these companies are in for a rough road ahead.
4. Coming Wednesday: Why Netflix and NBCUniversal Belong Together
Next, I want to give you a preview of the subscriber-only article I am working on for this Wednesday. This is a bold claim, so hear me out. I want to start slowly preparing everybody for what I think is the eventual inevitability that Netflix and NBCUniversal end up part of the same company.
I was writing a recap of Comcast’s Q2 earnings, which came out Thurs, with a special focus on NBCUniversal. My piece from a few weeks ago, “Comcast Says the Quiet Part Out Loud“ (June 29), where I broke down the upcoming spinoff of NBCUniversal and Sky, was one of my most-read articles of the year. So rather than wait until the spin date to start covering this asset, I figured I might as well start now.
5. How Long Are We Doing This Dance With Google?
This past week, Google reported Q2 earnings on Wednesday, and investors sold the stock because they were spooked by higher capital expenditures. Alphabet raised full-year 2026 capex guidance to $195 to $205 billion. Google also posted its first negative free cash flow quarter since the company went public back in 2004.
CFO Anat Ashkenazi did not sugarcoat the situation. She said free cash flow will “remain under pressure.” And frankly, I fully expect more quarters like this one.
If you go through my archives, I have been consistently bullish about Google ever since I started Accrued Interest.
How long do we have to do this dance where, every six to nine months, the prevailing narrative flips like a light switch between “Google is over” and “Google is back”?
There is a saying that price drives narrative, and I do not think there is a cleaner live example than this stock. When Google is falling, people explain why it deserves to be down more. When it is rising, suddenly it is an unstoppable monopoly.
But as a sanity check, I thought it was notable that in his recent CNBC interview, Warren Buffett was explicit that he was the one who pushed Berkshire Hathaway into the Google investment, not Greg Abel. His words: “I initiated it.”
What I want readers to do is focus on the big picture, and really ask yourself what actually changed before you change your opinion. I do not expect value stocks like Google (or Meta) to go up in a straight line. Drawdowns are the price of admission. However, my conviction on the dominance of Google has not wavered.
Thank you for reading this week’s edition of the Weekly Cypher!
Upgrade your subscription to the paid tier and you won’t miss my weekly contrarian deep dives on the media and technology space, with original takes you will not find anywhere else on the web.
And as always: avoid the Sunday scaries, and good luck this week.
Relevant tickers: $NTDOY, GOOG 0.00%↑ PSKY 0.00%↑ , WBD 0.00%↑, CMCSA 0.00%↑, NFLX 0.00%↑, META 0.00%↑
— Accrued Interest
Disclaimer: The information presented in this Substack is for educational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions regarding the prospects of any company discussed here, as I am not a registered investment advisor.
You can always reach me at simeon@accruedint.com.
