Accrued Interest Weekly Cypher: July 12, 2026
Meta's +15% Week and Why Netflix Isn't Panicking
Welcome to Volume 4 of the Accrued Interest Weekly Cypher for the week ending July 12, 2026! Consider this your “in-case-you-missed-it” digest to help you catch up over the weekend, featuring the analysis and commentary I shared throughout the week.
Scroll to the end for a brief video podcast where I recorded my latest thoughts on two of my favorite longs, Meta and Netflix, following this week’s news.
One quick reminder: Accrued Interest goes paid on Wednesday, July 22. You can pledge your subscription now—the first 100 pledges lock in $199/year forever. Seats 101 through 250 lock in $249/year for life in honor of America’s 250th anniversary. After that, pricing adjusts. Your card will not be charged until launch day. There will be no discounts after this window—not on Black Friday, not ever. We are also launching the Partner class (25 seats, $995/year, includes 1-on-1 access to me) and Accrued Interest Institutional for project-based research.
Now, let’s cue the record drop and dive into this week’s cypher for the week ending July 12.
1. The Pitch-Mas Shorts Went 6-for-6: My H1 2026 Scorecard (Pt.1) - July 8
Accrued Interest is the #1 short-selling newsletter for value investors. The S&P 500 rallied +9.51% in the first half of 2026; my six December shorts declined an average of -29.43%.
Accrued Interest TLDR: Ahead of the July 22 paid launch, I am taking a victory lap and planting a flag: Accrued Interest is the best value investing, short-selling newsletter on Substack. Of the twelve stocks I pitched in December’s 12 Days of Pitch-Mas, seven calls have gone my way so far — but the record I am most proud of is going 6-for-6 on the short side. While the S&P 500 rallied +9.51% in the first half, my six shorts averaged a -29.43% absolute decline, and every single one lagged the benchmark by at least 21 percentage points. Today I revisit each December thesis and preview what the second half holds.
Fubo ($FUBO): The Death Spiral Arrived Ahead of Schedule
Duolingo ($DUOL): The Market Finally Priced the Owl Like a Mobile Game
Pinterest ($PINS): The Value Trap Sprung — Now Elliott Is Building the Exit Ramp
Paramount Skydance ($PSKY): The Anatomy of a Doomed Merger
Disney ($DIS): The Albatross of Linear TV Is Still Around Its Neck
Nexstar ($NXST): Broadcast Decline, Now Trapped in Legal Limbo
Read the full article here: The Pitch-Mas Shorts Went 6-for-6: My H1 2026 Scorecard (Pt.1)
2. Why Fox and Telemundo Don’t Mind That the USA and Mexico Are Out - Jul 10
What pricing Spanish-language soccer ads taught me about the World Cup’s real business.
Accrued Interest TLDR: Both host teams are out of the World Cup, and the broadcasters will be just fine. I used to price Spanish-language soccer ads for a living, and this piece explains why: the money was locked in before kickoff, the eliminations were the priced-in base case, and record ratings mostly can’t be billed for anyway. The one true windfall — hydration-break ads — belongs to Fox alone, and Telemundo’s refusal to touch it tells you everything about a shrinking Spanish-language TV business protecting its crown jewel. In this article I also cover: why the most-watched soccer league on American television is Mexican, what MLS’s Apple deal revealed about the home league, and a data-backed defense of the U.S. Men’s National Soccer team.
Read the full article here: Why Fox and Telemundo Don’t Mind That the USA and Mexico Are Out
3. Video Podcast: Meta and Netflix
Sundays are for reflecting, so I recorded some new thoughts about Meta and Netflix based on the news from the past week. I believe both stocks are undervalued, and I look forward to updating my deep dives after they report their respective Q2 earnings in the coming weeks (NFLX reports on Thurs).
Let me know your thoughts! Have a great start to your week and avoid the Sunday Scaries!
Relevant tickers: CMCSA 0.51%↑, TV 2.58%↑, FOX -1.01%↓, NFLX -2.68%↓, DIS -1.04%↓, PSKY -0.21%↓ , META 0.00%↑
— Accrued Interest
Disclaimer: The information presented in this Substack is for educational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions regarding the prospects of any company discussed here, as I am not a registered investment advisor.
You can always reach me at simeon@accruedint.com.
