Accrued Interest Weekly Cypher: Aug 16, 2026
Week-in-Review: Reddit Joins S&P, Updates on AppLovin and Duolingo, and my new TMT Multiple Tracker for Subs
Welcome to Volume 8 of the Accrued Interest Weekly Cypher for the week ending Aug 16, 2026! Consider this your “in-case-you-missed-it” digest to help you catch up over the weekend. Here is a quick rundown of all the articles that I’ve published since the last edition, along with their summaries and a few thoughts since I last published.
Reddit Has a Landlord, and His Name Is Google
Reddit crushed Q2 earnings and the stock fell 21%. Here’s what the market saw that the bulls didn’t.
Accrued Interest TLDR: Reddit just printed one of the best quarters you will see from a public company, yet the stock lost a fifth of its value in two sessions. I think the market got it right. I am not calling a top. I can see this stock going higher. What I cannot understand is why anyone would pay a premium over Meta to own it.
Read full article here, published on Aug 5, 2026
Sunday 8.16 $RDDT Thoughts: Congratulations to all the Reddit bulls! On Thursday, the stock spiked higher on news that it was being added to the S&P 500. I am glad that I got my article out explaining my issues with the bull case before the hype came back. I am no longer pressing the short case, I think this is a market perform for the rest of the year. Again, I think Meta is cheaper and better for the long term but I can see RDDT going higher on its revenue growth alone.
AppLovin Q2-26: I Got This One Wrong
5 reasons the market stopped paying up, and why I do not expect a re-rate before 2027.
Accrued Interest TLDR: I recommended AppLovin as an outperform on the last day of 2025, and it has been my worst pick of the year. This article is my honest accounting of why. I am moving my rating from outperform to market perform. The company remains excellent, but the stock is now a show-me story, and I do not expect the re-rate before 2027.
Read full article here, published on Aug 10, 2026
Sunday 8.16 $APP Thoughts - AppLovin stock fell another 8% after I published this note. I want to be clear: I’m not giving up on the company. Expectations got ahead of themselves, and the stock is finding support at a lower valuation range. For paid subscribers, I explained the valuation math. Upgrade to the paid tier and you’ll get my next analysis on what I think are new more conservative 2027 estimates.
Duolingo Q2-26: Growing Users, Not Money
Most of my bear case played out. Here is why I am upgrading anyway.
Accrued Interest TLDR: Following Duolingo’s second quarter earnings last week, most of my issues with this company continue to be proven correct, and I stand by the underperform call I made throughout the first half of the year. DUOL is down 24% year to date against a rising market. But I am upgrading my rating from underperform to market perform, because while two of the main points of my bear case played out, the other two are weaker based on recent evidence.
Read full article here, published on Aug 13, 2026
Sunday 8.16 $DUOL Thoughts - Duolingo is another stock that I’m glad I upgraded to market perform. I still think it is too expensive and inferior to Meta. HOWEVER I expect Duolingo to have very strong user growth in Q4-26 because management said on the earnings call they were offering cash bonuses to management if they do +25% YoY. I fully expect mgmt to chase less profitable users to make sure they get paid. Whether or not those users turn into paying ones in 2027 remains to be seen.
The TMT Multiple Tracker 8.14.26
Tech and media stock valuations, EPS revisions, and P/E changes. Week of August 14, 2026.
See the full tracker published on Aug 14, 2026
I want to provide useful market intelligence to my paid subscribers so I resurrected the Accrued Interest TMT Tracker. The point of my tracker is not to predict stock movements, but to help explain HOW MUCH of stock’s moves this week were based on consensus earnings revisions vs. changes in the earnings multiple.
Most stock screeners out there just tell you price moves, with no context. My weekly tracker will be a resource for you to help determine for yourselves whether or not your stocks are cheap or expensive. Upgrade your subscription for access to this new weekly tool.
As always, wishing you all the best of luck as the trading week begins. Upgrade to paid below, and stay tuned for more earnings recaps as reports roll in this week!
Relevant tickers: RDDT 0.00%↑ , APP 0.00%↑ , META 0.00%↑ , DUOL 0.00%↑
-Accrued Interest
Disclaimer: The information presented in this Substack is for educational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions regarding the prospects of any company discussed here, as I am not a registered investment advisor.
