I appreciate how you cut through the noise with a tight bull case on Uber’s cash-flow story and why sentiment swung so strongly in its favor.
I’d caution against crowning a robotaxi champion this early. There are so many moving parts (regulatory approvals, unit economics, asset maintenance, and consumer trust...) that go far beyond just the raw AV technology.
On that note, I’m skeptical Tesla will win the robotaxi race. Their vision-only FSD approach still trails the lidar-and-radar suites that BYD, Waymo, and other players are deploying. Betting solely on camera vision feels like backing the wrong horse.
Hi Andrew - thank you for reading! I actually agree with you, I also still have concerns about Waymo competition but I am willing to bet Waymo cannot manage a full self-driving car service globally and will NEED help. I don't mean to suggest this matter is "settled". This was the first formal post on $UBER - I will be covering it going forward!
Robotaxi did scare me a bit. But so many partnerships, will never be a winner takes all market. People discount scaling, maintenance of robo. Wayve in the UK as well looks promising. I am interested to see how Tesla pans out though
First off - thanks for reading! I think it's cool how there are so many partnerships you can almost track in real time how this is shaping up for Uber. And I think Tesla is the least important part of the story, imo. All hype. I expect Tesla to "change the subject" back to AI when they fail again at AVs. Earnings always tell the story.
Thank you for sharing Simeon!
I appreciate how you cut through the noise with a tight bull case on Uber’s cash-flow story and why sentiment swung so strongly in its favor.
I’d caution against crowning a robotaxi champion this early. There are so many moving parts (regulatory approvals, unit economics, asset maintenance, and consumer trust...) that go far beyond just the raw AV technology.
On that note, I’m skeptical Tesla will win the robotaxi race. Their vision-only FSD approach still trails the lidar-and-radar suites that BYD, Waymo, and other players are deploying. Betting solely on camera vision feels like backing the wrong horse.
By the way, props for calling Uber’s upside! I entered around $30 in mid-2023 (I wrote about when I entered on Seeking Alpha https://seekingalpha.com/article/4589292-re-rating-uber-redeployment-freight-division-capital-into-delivery) and exited in the $60s (just when you went in). Definitely wish I’d hung onto those shares 😅.
— George
While I don't fully agree, and probably have more concerns about competitive disruption, I love the simple and concise writeup!
Hi Andrew - thank you for reading! I actually agree with you, I also still have concerns about Waymo competition but I am willing to bet Waymo cannot manage a full self-driving car service globally and will NEED help. I don't mean to suggest this matter is "settled". This was the first formal post on $UBER - I will be covering it going forward!
Robotaxi did scare me a bit. But so many partnerships, will never be a winner takes all market. People discount scaling, maintenance of robo. Wayve in the UK as well looks promising. I am interested to see how Tesla pans out though
First off - thanks for reading! I think it's cool how there are so many partnerships you can almost track in real time how this is shaping up for Uber. And I think Tesla is the least important part of the story, imo. All hype. I expect Tesla to "change the subject" back to AI when they fail again at AVs. Earnings always tell the story.