Media Valuation Tracker Update – Week of July 28, 2025
Notes on $GOOGL, $WBD and $DIS
This is the fourth week in an ongoing series in which I update my Accrued Interest Multiple Tracker. My aim for Accrued Interest is to create actionable research materials. I hope you use these trackers to clarify reasons for specific stock movements and as a place to generate new investment ideas. (You can find past editions here: July 21, July 14 and July 7.)
Last week, Google ($GOOGL, $GOOG) was the second company on my list to report Q2 earnings. Around half the companies on the tracker report between August 5th and 8th—expect many updates next week!
Now here is my rundown for this week’s update:
Valuation Tracker Update – Week of July 28
Internet / Communication Services
Google ($GOOGL) up +1.3% vs. last week:
Last Wed on 7/23, Google reported better than expected Q2 earnings. The positive results had already been factored into market expectations, as the stock was up only 1% last week. Google’s shares were already near $190 before earnings, as investors had warmed to the company in the weeks leading up to the event. Before earnings, I highlighted this brief summary of analyst commentary to show that the bulls were ready to send Google higher!
In case you missed it, please see my article Google Q2-25 Earnings Recap - $GOOGL Search Is Not Dead!, for highlights on the excellent quarter. I focused on my top 10 quotes from the earnings conference call with management.
Google’s discounted valuation already reflected concerns about its moat.
YouTube is experiencing growth and improved monetization with Shorts.
The increasing processing of tokens indicates a significant ramp-up of AI across all Google services.
The AI revolution is broadening the applications of search engines for more video, images, and real-world information gathering.
YouTube continues to dominate big screen TV viewing.
As Waymo expands to more cities, investors are seeing that their technology and execution is years ahead of where Tesla is today.
Search advertising growth reaccelerated, dispelling fears of erosion.
YouTube advertising growth also reaccelerated.
Google is focused on using YouTube to win CTV ad dollars (connected television)
GOOGL is raising its Capex investments in AI infrastructure.
I expect Google to reach new all-time highs in 2025 and recommend you stay invested.
Rating: Google ($GOOGL) remains one of my favorite stocks — Outperform
The Trade Desk ($TTD) up +10.5% vs. last week:
While The Trade Desk (TTD) does not report Q2 earnings until 8/7, the stock has continued to rally following the news on 7/17 that it was joining the S&P 500.
Unless any major news breaks, I will wait until after the earnings call to comment on the stock. As I said last week, index moves are long-term valuation neutral.
Rating: No opinion on TTD
Diversified Media + Streaming
Warner Bros. Discovery ($WBD) up +7.0% vs. last week:
This week, WBD stock continued to rally for two primary reasons. First, their big summer tentpole movie Superman continued to perform well at the box office.
James Gunn's Superman movie earned $24.8 million in its third weekend at the North American box office, bringing its domestic total to nearly $290 million. This weekend's box office performance saw a 57.4% decrease from the previous weekend, but it still marked the 4th biggest 3rd weekend of the year, surpassing Jurassic World Rebirth.
Superman’s performance has been strong, and I want to give credit where it is deserved to DC Studios. But with the almost equally strong debut of the Fantastic Four: First Steps ($DIS) last Friday at #1, I’m starting to think that audiences are finding superheroes to be cool again. FF earned $218 million globally while Superman squeaked ahead with $220 million.
The continued success of high-profile superhero franchises like the DCU and MCU demonstrates the enduring appeal of the genre, effectively refuting claims of "superhero fatigue" among audiences.
Secondly, investors received another update on the upcoming spinoff plans.
As reported by the WSJ and other outlets on Monday 7/28 “WBD detailed leadership plans for its previously announced split into two separate companies that will be completed next year.”
I have written about the upcoming WBD spinoff back in June — WBD Spin-Off: My Quick Take on the Announcement. Stay tuned, as I will keep you updated on the separation plans.
Earnings Estimates Update – Week of July 28
From Tikr, I'm tracking consensus EBITDA, adjusted EPS, and FCF estimates. The aim isn't agreement but monitoring these shifts. Future editions will cover how estimate changes affect multiples, with subscribers getting access to the Excel models. (You can find past editions here: July 21 and July 14)
Once more than 50% of the tracker companies have announced Q2 earnings, I will do comparisons to see which ones had the biggest earnings revisions in both directions.
CONCLUSION
The most consequential company to report this week on my tracker is Meta, and they announce tomorrow Wed, 7/30 after the closing bell. Reddit (RDDT) will follow the next day, 7/31 but please bear with me as I am still getting up to speed on the company. I’m mostly following RDDT to understand its $60 million annual licensing deal for Reddit's content to train Google's AI models and improve Google Search.
Next week is the big one!
August 5th: Snap ($SNAP), Fox Corp ($FOXA)
August 6th: AppLovin ($APP), Disney ($DIS), Sinclair ($SBGI)
August 7th: The Trade Desk ($TTD), Pinterest ($PINS), Lionsgate ($LION), Nexstar ($NXST), E.W. Scripps ($SSP), Tegna ($TGNA), Warner Bros Discovery ($WBD)
August 8th: Gray Media ($GTN)
I will do my best to provide updates as quickly as possible following the earnings calls. Please subscribe to Accrued Interest so you never miss a post!
-Accrued Interest
I'm eager to hear your feedback! Which media and tech companies should I add to the tracker to support your research? Please share your suggestions in the comments or reach out to me directly at simeon@accruedint.com.