Media Valuation Tracker Update – Week of July 14, 2025
Thoughts on valuation heading into Q2 earnings szn
This is the second week in what will be an ongoing series in which I update my Accrued Interest Multiple Tracker. I want to add value to subscribers by providing not only commentary, but key data points so you can make better decisions. All my valuation trackers are custom made, with earnings estimates based on consensus from the data service Tikr. The point of these trackers is to 1) observe “consensus” opinion on key stocks, 2) decide if we have a variant perception that may lead to 3) an actionable investment idea. As we get more of these, I will be able to show changes in consensus earnings as well as market multiples, to help tell the story.
Now here’s the expanded company list below. Last week was 10, now I have 19 names on my tracker – most of which I have talked about on my Substack at some point.
Here is the newly expanded list. I’m going to run through some thoughts on valuation by category, as well as highlight five stocks I find attractive before Q2 earnings.
Valuation Tracker Update – Week of July 14
Internet / Communication Services *New Category Added* includes – Google ($GOOGL / $GOOG), Meta Platforms ($META), AppLovin ($APP), The Trade Desk ($TTD), Reddit ($RDDT), Pinterest ($PINS), and Snap ($SNAP).
I’m adding more advertising tech and social media companies to my tracker since I talk about Google and AppLovin so much.
Diversified Media + Streaming – Netflix ($NFLX), Walt Disney ($DIS), Warner Bros. Discovery ($WBD), Fox Corporation ($FOX / $FOXA), Paramount Global ($PARA), Lionsgate Studios ($LION), and Starz Entertainment ($STRZ).
I added Lionsgate and Starz to the tracker since I’ve mentioned them on the Substack before. LION and STRZ are quite small and could be gobbled up by any company, but buyers are clearly in no hurry to buy these spinoffs or else they would have done so already.
Broadcast / Local Television – Nexstar Media Group ($NXST), Gray Media ($GTN), TEGNA ($TGNA), Sinclair ($SBGI), E.W. Scripps Company ($SSP).
Local TV stocks rallied a bit last week on news that GTN and SSP were swapping some stations in anticipation of the FCC making changes to ownership rules.
With this tracker, I suggest you look at all the debt these companies have on their balance sheets. Their high leverage will cause the stock to swing +10%-20%, but the enterprise values did not move that much. The industry is still struggling to find growth, and the FCC cannot change that.
Earnings Estimates Update – Week of July 14
The following table has all the earnings estimates I gathered from Tikr. Again, the point here is not yet to agree or disagree with these figures. I find it helpful to track consensus EBITDA, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) and free cash flow (FCF) my favorite metric.
In coming editions, it will be interesting to see how these earnings estimates change the company multiples. For subscribers, I will be sharing the Excels over time as well.
Interesting Stocks – July 14th edition
This week I want to call out 5 stocks, highlighted in green on the tracker, that I find attractive heading into Q2 earnings season.
1. Google ($GOOG / $GOOG)
Google trading at 16x 2027 EPS I think is an attractive valuation. The stock has held up well over the past few months despite all the calls that “Search is dead”. YouTube just posted a new all-time high in terms of TV viewing share, which I will be talking about in a future post.
Valuation is a bit higher in terms of FCF, at 24x 2027 EV / FCF, but that is likely due to higher capex spending. I think the company will have no problem finding cost savings in SG&A and other areas to continue investing in AI.
2. Pinterest ($PINS)
Pinterest is trading at about 13x 2027 adjusted EPS and 12x 2027 EV/FCF. I began to look into the company a few weeks ago and will do follow-up posts. The stocks is cheap and I think they can grow margins using AI to improve monetization.
Expectations are not high, and PINS is not a crowded trade, so I’m inclined to go long this and see how things play out over the next 4 quarters.
Let me say upfront, I think AI will be a benefit to a LOT of digital advertising players so my interest in Pinterest is both specific and thematic.
3. AppLovin ($APP)
AppLovin is not cheap, but I think it is still attractively priced relative to its growth at about 22x 2027 EV/FCF. The company is in the early stages of rolling out a self-service platform for its e-commerce customers that will enhance growth in 2026/2027.
The stock is prone to wild swings, based on rumors from short sellers and lots of other things outside of the company’s control. I will always encourage you to focus on fundamentals. You won’t have to wait long – APP is reporting Q2 earnings on Wed, Aug 6th after the market closes.
Again, the stock is NOT cheap, but similar to NFLX, I think you must acknowledge when a company is on a generational run and get on board.
4. Fox ($FOX / $FOXA)
FOX is attractive trading at about 13x 2027 EV/ FCF. I mentioned last week that I thought $FOX was reasonably priced when I was talking about TV stocks. It is undoubtedly a best-in-class asset, dominating cable news so much that it has over 50% of news ratings. Whatever the future holds for streaming TV, there is no doubt that FOX will be there. Fox News is the most valuable television network in my opinion, and it is not even close.
As we see more viewers chose advertising supported streaming services, investors will come to appreciate that Fox owns 100% of Tubi. They also have a call option to buy almost 20% of FanDuel, that is probably not fully reflected in the stock price because it is an unrealized gain.
5. Netflix ($NFLX)
NFLX is expensive, but like what I said above on AppLovin, you can’t ignore how they owned their category with impressive financial results. In the latest Nielsen figures for the month of June, viewership was up 13.5% vs. May 2025. According to Nielsen, “Netflix’s performance was so strong, it accounted for 42% of streaming’s total monthly gain”.
If you own the stock, hold NFLX for the long-term. And if you do not own it, I would look at add this world-class company on any pullbacks.
CONCLUSION
Going forward I will update this tracker close to weekly, usually on Mondays. Not every week will have stock picks but for this first one I wanted to make it clear what names I liked heading into Q2 earnings season starting right now.
Let me know your thoughts! What media and tech companies would you like to see me add to the tracker to help with your research? Tell me in the comments or you can always reach me at simeon@accruedint.com.
-Accrued Interest