Media Stock Insights from Nielsen’s Jan-26 TV Snapshot
Streaming Keeps Gaining Ground Despite Linear TV's Live Sports Lifeline
The January 2026 data came out last week, don’t buy the legacy media spin. January’s Nielsen Gauge gave linear TV a temporary, sports-driven bump, but the year-over-year reality is ruthless. Here is the real story hiding behind the monthly noise:
Cable is Hemorrhaging: Linear TV is down -9% YoY, dragged down by a -13% drop in cable viewing.
The Kings Stay Kings: YouTube (+16% YoY) and Netflix (+2% YoY) remain the undisputed, untouchable giants of the living room.
Sports Force Migration: Amazon Prime (+11% YoY) proves that if you buy premium sports rights, viewers will follow you off the bundle.
FAST is Sticking: Free, ad-supported platforms like Roku (+43%) and Tubi (+14%) are permanently stealing ad share from legacy players.
Check out past monthly updates here: Dec, Nov, Oct, Sep, Aug, July, June, May, April, March, Feb and Jan. Here is my breakdown of the January numbers and what they mean for your media portfolio.
TV Market: Linear TV Share Down -9% YoY
Ignore Month-over-month optics vs. YoY reality: The media coverage surrounding Nielsen’s reports tends to be somewhat friendly to linear networks, largely because many of them are long-tenured Nielsen clients. Because of this, the picture in January looks “OK” if you only look at the sequential month-over-month data compared to December. As investors, however, we must focus on the YoY trends to see the true trajectory.
The structural decline remains intact: Overall, linear TV is down -9% YoY when combining broadcast and cable. The small, sports-driven monthly increases simply are not enough to change the overarching narrative: streaming is permanently gaining share.
Cable continues to bleed out: When you look under the hood of that combined -9% decline, it becomes clear that cable is falling at a much faster and steeper rate than broadcast, further confirming the structural unraveling of the legacy bundle. Specifically, cable was down -13% YoY vs. -4% for broadcast. Blended, it does not look as bad, but the breakout shows where the real hemorrhaging is happening.
Live sports are the ultimate lifeline: While it is indisputable that linear TV has lost massive share to streaming over the long term, live sports remain the one asset capable of reliably bringing viewers back to the traditional bundle. We can clearly see this in the month-over-month viewership bumps on broadcast and cable when marquee sporting events take place.
Live sports drivers include College Football Playoffs, which included the quarterfinals, semifinals and championship games.
NFL games accounted for the top 15 broadcast telecasts, and the sports genre represented the largest share of the category’s viewership (30%).
YouTube TV’s New Cheaper TV Packages Now Available: YouTube TV has broadened the availability of its newly introduced genre-specific, cheaper packages to additional customers as of February 24, 2026.
This expansion comes two weeks after the initial launch announcement on February 9, marking a step forward in the company’s phased rollout strategy. While the service has indicated that full access for all users may take several more weeks to complete, multiple reports emerging today highlight that a wider group of subscribers can now opt into these cost-effective alternatives to the standard plan. With platforms aggressively pricing alternative packages, I expect cord cutting to accelerate and linear losses are going to continue into 2027.
Relevant Tickers: DIS 0.00%↑, PSKY 0.00%↑, CMCSA 0.00%↑ , WBD 0.00%↑, SBGI 0.00%↑, NXST 0.00%↑ FUBO 0.00%↑
1) YouTube ($GOOGL) #1 with 12.5% share, +16% YoY
Unstoppable YoY Growth: YouTube remains the undisputed king of the big screen, up +16% YoY. While their share dipped slightly month-over-month, it is crucial to remember that January is structurally a lower month for overall TV viewership compared to the holiday-heavy December.
The Ultimate Content Engine: If you have been reading my past updates, you know how bullish I am on Google’s living room strategy. YouTube’s advertising growth is a direct reflection of the fact that the platform consistently takes share of entertainment watch time globally, without the multi-billion-dollar content budgets required by legacy studios.
Consistent Growth at Scale: It bears repeating that YouTube is in a class of its own in its ability to continue growing at scale. All other services, including Netflix, have shown to have some ceilings. YouTube is the only one that can consistently grow without having to buy expensive content or engage in M&A.
Relevant Tickers: GOOG 0.00%↑, GOOGL 0.00%↑
2) Netflix ($NFLX) #2 with 8.8% share, +2% YoY
Holding the Line YoY: Netflix’s share is up +2% YoY. Viewership was naturally down sequentially from December, but let us not forget that last month was a historic anomaly fueled by their massive Christmas Day NFL games and the Stranger Things finale. The fact that they remain so strong YoY proves their baseline engagement is stickier than ever.
The “Barbell” Strategy is Working: Even without the massive holiday sports bump, Netflix has fundamentally elevated its floor. They are successfully executing a barbell strategy of premium scripted content on one end and must-watch live events on the other. NFLX had the top streaming program for a second consecutive month, as Stranger Things tallied 15.4 billion viewing minutes in January.
The Warner Bros. Pursuit: Netflix winning WB Studios is not 100% necessary. But I see it as analogous to when the Golden State Warriors went out and got Kevin Durant as free agent. Steph Curry and the team were already breaking records and had won championships, but Durant not only gave them another weapon, but it kept it away from their competitors. I will be writing more about the Netflix/Paramount drama to come now that earnings season is wrapping up.
Relevant Tickers: NFLX 0.00%↑
3) Prime Video ($AMZN) #4 with 4.1% share, +11% YoY
Sports Drive Migration: Amazon Prime Video continues to show limited momentum, up a steady +11% YoY. This completely validates the thesis that if you acquire the right premium sports rights, the audience will follow you off the legacy cable bundle.
Expanding the Playbook: Given the undeniable success they have had utilizing Thursday Night Football as an acquisition and engagement driver, Amazon is incredibly well-positioned to aggressively pursue more NFL games and other top-tier sports rights in the future. They have the balance sheet to do it, and the viewership data now proves the strategy works.
More NFL Rights on the Horizon: The NFL is looking at bringing more games to streaming players. Recent industry reports suggest the league is highly likely to carve out separate packages of games for Amazon, Netflix, and YouTube in its upcoming media deals, meaning legacy networks will have to give up more of their most valuable inventory.
Relevant Tickers: AMZN 0.00%↑
4) Roku Channel ($ROKU) #5 with 3.0% share, +43% YoY
The Stickiness of FAST: Streaming-first platforms, particularly Free Ad-Supported Streaming TV (FAST) services like The Roku Channel, have successfully held onto their massive viewership gains. Roku is up an impressive +43% from last January.
A Methodical Climb: While that YoY percentage jump is eye-popping, it is important to note that Roku’s share increase has not been a sudden, volatile spike. It has been a steady, consistent climb throughout the past year as consumers increasingly seek out frictionless, free content alternatives.
Ad Share Monetization: Roku’s Q4 earnings reported on February 13 confirmed they are successfully scaling their platform revenue (up +18.2%). By leveraging their base of over 90 million logged-in streaming households and expanding programmatic activity with major demand platforms, Roku turned a surprise Q4 profit, proving they are actively taking ad share as viewership migrates from linear to digital.
Relevant Tickers: ROKU 0.00%↑
5) Tubi ($FOXA) #7 with 2.1% share, +14% YOY
Strong Gains off a Smaller Base: Tubi continues to perform exceptionally well, up +14% YoY, further proving the viability of the FAST business model.
Outperforming the Giants: While 2.1% might sound modest, it is incredibly revealing that Tubi consistently commands higher TV usage than the multi-billion-dollar legacy streaming platforms of its peers, easily outpacing services like Comcast’s Peacock and Warner Bros. Discovery’s Max.
A High, Stable Plateau: Tubi has done an excellent job holding onto its gains, establishing a solid plateau around the 2.1% share mark. For context, the last time Tubi saw a massive, abnormal spike was during its simulcast of the Super Bowl last year when Fox held the rights.
Relevant Tickers: FOXA 0.00%↑
CONCLUSION
The January Nielsen Gauge data reinforces the core Accrued Interest thesis: the melting ice cube of linear television is not refreezing. While stocks may be noisy around the Netflix/Paramount fight for Warner Bros. and other M&A news such as Nexstar’s proposed acquisition of Tegna - the viewing trends are all negative for the legacy players. While live sports will continue to create monthly noise and provide a temporary lifeline to legacy networks, the structural shift of eyeballs to YouTube, Netflix, and FAST platforms like Roku and Tubi is permanent.
As we move deeper into 2026, the divide between the tech platforms that own the living room interface and the legacy media players clinging to the dying bundle will only widen. I want to make clear that YouTube (owned by Google) and Netflix are still the only publicly traded TV stocks that I feel comfortable holding for more than 2 years.
-Accrued Interest
Disclaimer: The information presented in this Substack is for educational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions regarding the prospects of any company discussed here, as I am not a registered investment advisor.
You can always reach me at simeon@accruedint.com.