Media Stock Insights from Nielsen’s June-25 TV Snapshot

YouTube and Netflix pull away from the pack

Nielsen is out with its June 2025 Gauge report, exploring what Americans are watching on their big screen televisions (excluding mobile devices). If you want to learn about which individual TV shows are driving viewing share, I suggest checking out Nielsen’s blog. This month, I want to zoom out and look at more “big picture” trends for several of the streaming companies.

YouTube is again #1 with a new all-time high of 12.8% of all TV viewing in America. I’ve been reporting on YouTube’s rise in May, April, March, Feb, and Jan of this year.

Here are the key takeaways from the June report…

1) YouTube ($GOOGL) continued at #1, with a new all-time high TV viewing share

I am going to keep writing about YouTube so that years from now when Google stock ($GOOGL) is higher – I can say “I told you so” and point back to my Substack archives. I think the most impressive aspect of YT’s new high of 12.8% is that the service is still managing to take share at an impressive pace. YouTube grew +29% vs. last June while Netflix ($NFLX) stayed flat at #2.

2) Netflix ($NFLX) was #2 with 8.3% share

All the charts here use the same scale so that your eye can compare easily. From the chart, you can see that Netflix ($NFLX) at 8.3% viewing share is far ahead of the Disney family* at #3 with 4.8% (*includes Disney+, ESPN+ and Hulu SVOD combined). But NFLX is the same distance behind #1 YouTube at 12.8%.

On the Nielsen blog, their editorial focused on Netflix’s “largest monthly uptick” – they were up +13.5% vs. May. But on Accrued Interest we focus on the big picture, which shows that NFLX has been a steady #2 behind YT with a bit of ceiling. Despite the bounce-back in June, Netflix has yet to break out past its Jan-2025 1-year high of 8.6% and head above 9%.

NFLX stock can keep working, even if its US viewership plateaus, because it is still the only diversified media company (other than Disney) with an international streaming footprint. The company can grow revenue by signing up international users as well as serving everyone more ads per hour.

3) Prime Video ($AMZN) was #4 with 3.6% share

Prime Video has an impressive 3.6% share, which is up +16% vs. last year. However, Amazon ($AMZN) is underrated by investors in terms of the impact the company has on the streaming video market. What AMZN lacks in “hit” shows, it more than makes up for in advertising inventory. Amazon was able to use its size and scale to lower streaming CPMs by flipping millions of Prime Video subscribers into the advertising tier by default for its 100 million U.S. households.

Check out a recent piece I wrote - How Streaming is Changing the TV Upfronts. The largest media players such as Amazon and Netflix have reached a scale in which they almost have their own force of gravity. Regardless of whether NFLX or AMZN has a hit show at the moment, their scale will make them a “must-buy” for many advertisers.

Prime Video will look to grow its share beyond +4% as they add more sporting events in the coming TV season. For now, $AMZN has plenty of room to take more advertising budgets by raising the ad load on its subscribers.

4) Tubi ($FOX / $FOXA) was #6 with 2.2% share

Tubi's viewership increased when FOX ($FOXA) broadcast the Super Bowl for free in February, and its share has remained above 2.0% most of the time since then. I will talk more about the service when I do a proper write-up on Fox Corporation. However, Fox is extremely fortunate to have one of the largest FAST players (free ad supported television). With advertising dollars continuing to leave linear television along with audiences, ad supported streamers are growing faster than subscription services. In my latest media valuation tracker update this week, I called out $FOX as being attractive due to its 100% ownership of Tubi.

CONCLUSION

Overall, this June report was more of the same. Streaming is now 46% of TV viewing – it is just a matter of time until it crosses 50%. I will continue to highlight YouTube, because I think media investors need to understand that it will be difficult for other services to gain advertising dollars if YT and Netflix keep stealing everyone’s free time.

-Accrued Interest

Disclaimer: The information presented in this Substack is for educational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions regarding the prospects of any company discussed here, as I am not a registered investment advisor.

You can always reach me at simeon@accruedint.com.