Thanks, @Simeon McMillan, for this. To be honest, I wasn't aware of the FanDuel option! I never invested in $FOXA as EBITDA has been flatish for the past 5ish years. But now I should take a second look.
Your FanDuel optionalty analysis is really compelling - the 5% annual escalator working against the 10% appreciation is an interesting dynamic. I'm curious how you're thinking about the state-by-state licensing risk though. Getting licensed in all 26 states could take longer than expected and might delay the option exercise past optimal timing. Also, the Tubi comparison to Paramount+ and Peacock is eye-opening, but those services have material sports content driving viewership spikes. Does Tubi's 2.2% share hold up during NFL season when those competitors see bumps?
Thanks, @Simeon McMillan, for this. To be honest, I wasn't aware of the FanDuel option! I never invested in $FOXA as EBITDA has been flatish for the past 5ish years. But now I should take a second look.
Thank you!
Your FanDuel optionalty analysis is really compelling - the 5% annual escalator working against the 10% appreciation is an interesting dynamic. I'm curious how you're thinking about the state-by-state licensing risk though. Getting licensed in all 26 states could take longer than expected and might delay the option exercise past optimal timing. Also, the Tubi comparison to Paramount+ and Peacock is eye-opening, but those services have material sports content driving viewership spikes. Does Tubi's 2.2% share hold up during NFL season when those competitors see bumps?
Great work @Simeon!
Have done (or have you seen) a detailed SOTP analysis of $FOXA?