Accrued Interest Weekly Cypher: Mar-18-26
The first edition of our Weekly Cypher decoding the raw signals in tech and media.
Welcome to the first edition of The Accrued Interest - Weekly Cypher! This is a space where I give subscribers actionable, weekly insights into my process. I am thinking out loud, giving you my raw ideas that are very much a work in progress. If I don’t have anything substantive to say about a company, I will just be honest and tell you that, no fluff. What makes me a good investor is the sum total of my experiences. I enjoy connecting the dots through voracious reading—both financial news and industry-specific trade publications.
First, let’s do a rundown of all the companies we’ve talked about on Accrued Interest for the week of March 18th. Subscribe and come back weekly for updates on all the companies I follow; not all of these will have deep dives, but I will keep you current on my thoughts.
Let’s cue the record drop and get into this week’s cypher.
META - META 0.00%↑
Meta has reached middle age, but by no means is the company in crisis.
Headcount & Efficiency
Meta is reportedly planning layoffs of at least 20% of its staff. While some argue the savings will not offset AI investments, it signals management’s willingness to cut costs aggressively. With increased automation in engineering and analytics, further reductions are likely.
Political Content Push
Meta has quietly increased payouts to political creators to compete with TikTok. Payouts now reach up to $268,000 monthly for top creators, marking a sharp reversal from previous efforts to “tone down” political discourse.
This about-face shows Meta is prioritizing market share over platform neutrality. As I have noted before, “the audience will ultimately dictate who wins,” and Meta is now ruthlessly following that demand.
Valuation: At the time I’m writing this, Meta stock is $620 per share. It is trading around 21x 2026 GAAP EPS and approximately 18x 2027 GAAP EPS. This valuation is simply too cheap for dominant platforms such as Meta, which is currently in the midst of re-accelerating its revenue growth thanks to AI improvements in its ad-based business. I maintain my Outperform.
Interesting Recent News:
Netflix’s Chief Opens Up About Trump, YouTube and Europe - POLITICO
Reports indicate cuts could target about 20% of its workforce, or roughly 15,000–16,000 jobs.
This move aims to offset surging AI infrastructure costs while transitioning to a leaner, AI-assisted operational model.
On Facebook, it now pays to post about politics
According to Chaoticera, Meta is offering massive payouts to political creators to pull them away from TikTok.
Creators are reporting payouts ranging from $5,000 to $50,000 a month.
One prominent liberal news creator shared a screenshot of a massive $268,000 payout in January 2026.
Meta Paid Creators $3B in 2025, Launches New Program
Meta paid creators nearly $3 billion recently and launched a program guaranteeing up to $3,000 monthly to lure top talent.
This marks a sharp pivot in trying to pull political and established creators away from rivals like TikTok.
Netflix - NFLX 0.00%↑
Netflix showed the market true discipline by walking away from the WB deal.
The Power of Restraint
Netflix showed discipline by walking away from the Warner Bros. deal, a move that the market has rewarded. The stock has risen from the high $70s to $94, with some analysts setting price targets around $120, suggesting the bull thesis is firmly back on track.
Organic Value Creation
While I believe Netflix would have been the best owner of the WB assets, they can still create significant value organically. Investors remain in a “show me” stance, requiring double-digit revenue growth for the stock to climb higher. Key content events, such as the upcoming BTS documentary and reunion concert, speak to a promising content strategy.
Sarandos Sets the Record Straight
CEO Ted Sarandos has affirmed the company is on the right track, covering in recent interviews topics like the Trump administration, competition with YouTube, and the regulatory/operational hurdles of the linear broadcast business that led them to avoid the WB deal.
Valuation: At about $94 a share, Netflix is trading at approximately 30x 2026 GAAP EPS, and about 24x 2027 earnings. I think both of these are very fair — growth at a reasonable price (GARP) for one of the top two dominant global multimedia players.
Interesting Recent News
Bonus: Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos Says Warner Deal to Put More Films in Cinemas
Sarandos discusses the company’s discipline in walking away from the Warner Bros. deal, noting the heavy regulatory and operational hurdles, especially with complex broadcasting regulations in Europe.
The interview also touches on Netflix’s stance regarding the Trump administration and its strategy for competing with YouTube.
BTS Returns with Their First Performance in 3 Years — Streaming Live on Netflix
Netflix continues to lean into massive global fanbases, securing exclusive rights to the BTS reunion concert and documentary.
Paramount Skydance + Warner Bros. Discovery - PSKY 0.00%↑ , WBD 0.00%↑
Paramount won the battle, but the war of “swallowing the whale” has just begun.
The Cost of Victory
Analysts are focused on the integration challenges Paramount faces as they “swallow the whale.” I expect Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery to underperform due to massive debt loads, which leave little room for error if consumer spending dips.
The market has already signaled skepticism; PSKY stock has plunged over 20% this year, recently hitting 52-week lows.
Integration Paralysis
Integrations of this scale often lead to “institutional paralysis,” where strategy is frozen while the companies combine. My rating remains Underperform.
Valuation: I am not even going to get into valuation here because I do not want to have exposure to Paramount-Warner Bros. at pretty much any price. It is inevitable that this asset is going to be broken up at some point in the future. (More on that another day.)
Interesting Recent News
Warner Bros CEO David Zaslav in line for $700m payout from Paramount deal
Zaslav is set to walk away with an eye-watering “golden parachute” payment of over $700 million in stock, cash, and severance following the merger.
Google - GOOG 0.00%↑ , GOOGL 0.00%↑
Google’s AI momentum is quietly solidifying its place as the gold standard.
OpenAI’s Pivot Validates Google’s Lead
Google is a consensus AI winner, with its stock holding gains as Gemini products gain traction. The most bullish news is OpenAI’s pivot to focus on enterprise and coding-type tasks. I view this as a tacit retreat from the consumer space, strengthening my already high enthusiasm for Google. A scalable ad-based revenue stream, as I argued in “The Pokemon Theory of Investing,” buys time and fortifies the business model—something OpenAI lacks. On a related note, I am holding back on pitching Adobe as a bull case because Google’s Gemini AI is now handling increasingly sophisticated workloads, including graphics, reducing my dependency on that subscription.
YouTube’s Steady Sports Expansion
FIFA is using YouTube to air free World Cup game segments to reach a younger audience. This speaks to the inevitability of more sports content coming to YouTube. While I don’t expect big-package bids (like the NFL), YouTube has been excellent at targeted acquisition. All sports rights holders want more money, and FIFA will inevitably get a share of the YouTube dollars, leading to more soccer and World Cup content on the platform.
Valuation: After a massive run in 2025, Google is trading at a reasonable 27x 2026 GAAP EPS. It is trading at about 23x 2027 earnings. Since Google, I believe, is both a top-two advertising company and a top-two media company, Google warrants a higher multiple. However, I do not expect the stock to probably go much higher until earnings because a lot of the AI catalysts have already occurred.
The most telling sign of Google’s lead is the news that Meta, after pausing its own AI launch, considered licensing Gemini as a stopgap. This speaks to Google’s tangible moat and gold-standard status, where even competitors—even haters—are some of their biggest fans. I maintain my Outperform.
Interesting Recent News
‘ChatGPT must be a productivity tool,’ OpenAI CEO tells staff ahead of IPO: What’s behind the pivot?
OpenAI is targeting an IPO as early as Q4 2026 and reorienting its efforts aggressively toward high-productivity enterprise use cases.
This marks a clear shift away from consumer novelty toward monetizable coding and business applications.
Meta delays ‘Avocado’ AI model launch to May: Report
Meta’s “Avocado” model fell short in internal tests against competitors, causing a launch delay.
Meta’s AI division is reportedly considering temporarily licensing Google’s Gemini to power their products in the interim.
Nexstar Media + Tegna - NXST 0.00%↑,TGNA 0.00%↑
Combining two melting ice cubes is not going to make a stronger entity.
Political Lifelines vs. Fundamental Decline
While I have not written much about broadcast lately, given the ongoing drama with Netflix and Paramount-Warner Bros., my bearish outlook remains unchanged. Broadcast has seen fewer declines than cable, but the entire sector is in secular decline. I remain skeptical of Nexstar, even with the stock trading around $230. The share price has climbed in 2026, spurred by statements from both the President and the FCC chair indicating they would use governmental power to favor broadcasters—explicitly framed to “punish” certain networks. It bears repeating: political interference is rarely a win for investors. In this instance, it is providing a veneer of false hope for Nexstar’s valuation. It simply isn’t worth the current price.
I am maintaining my Underperform rating, though I recognize the stock may continue to rise on the speculation of a successful Tegna merger and subsequent cost-cutting. However, recent reporting reinforces my concerns regarding the fundamental broadcast model. Even if the deal closes, the post-2027 broadcast landscape will likely be an inferior product that both viewers and advertisers continue to abandon. Combining two melting ice cubes doesn’t create a stronger entity; it just leaves you with a bigger puddle.
The Death of Daytime Talk
I am currently developing a thesis arguing that the death of the daytime talk show—both political and entertainment—has been accelerating right before our eyes.
A couple of examples: just last week, NBCUniversal announced that they were leaving the business of doing first-run syndicated talk shows. They announced they were canceling a number of acclaimed shows such as The Steve Wilkos Show and Access Hollywood. Looking at the big picture, I also noticed that other prominent talk shows were canceled, including The Kelly Clarkson Show and the Sherri Shepherd show.
If you want to be bullish on Nexstar, I think you cannot ignore that their advantages of broadcast television are only getting smaller as they lose more things unique to the medium. As broadcast television loses more talk shows, I predict that station owners and the networks are going to fill the time slots with more local news. This is going to have diminishing returns, and as more of these talk shows effectively go to digital platforms and podcasts such as YouTube, this is only going to make it harder for Nexstar to grow shareholder value.
Combining two melting ice cubes is not going to make a stronger entity. I stick with Underperform.
Interesting Recent News
NBCUniversal Cancels Several Long-Running Syndicated Shows
NBCUniversal is exiting the first-run syndication market, citing shifting viewer habits and rising costs.
They are winding down production on long-running hits like Access Hollywood, Karamo, and The Steve Wilkos Show.
Sherri Shepherd’s daytime talk show axed hours after Kelly Clarkson announces TV exit
The Kelly Clarkson Show is ending its run after seven seasons.
Sherri Shepherd’s syndicated show Sherri has also been canceled after four seasons due to the challenging advertising environment.
F.C.C. Chair Threatens to Revoke Broadcasters’ Licenses Over War Coverage
FCC Chair Brendan Carr threatened to revoke broadcasters’ licenses over their coverage of the war with Iran, accusing them of running “hoaxes and news distortions.”
He warned broadcasters to “correct course” before license renewals come up, echoing criticism from President Trump over legacy media coverage.
The move is part of a broader campaign to stomp out what the Chair perceives as liberal bias in broadcasts.
Disney - DIS 0.00%↑
The audience decides who wins, and Disney’s IP continues to prove the magic is still there.
Leadership and Strategy
Disney’s leadership transition to CEO Josh D’Amaro marks the end of Bob Iger’s tenure—a period defined more by personal branding than actual shareholder returns. I remain skeptical of D’Amaro’s appointment; promoting the head of the Parks division to head the entire company is a fundamental strategic error.
Ultimately, Disney’s future depends on its creative engine. Recent hits like Zootopia 2 prove the formula still works, ensuring the magic remains regardless of leadership changes.
The Path Forward for the Mouse
I expect Disney to underperform until it separates its declining television assets, including ESPN. My opinion on that has not changed. However, its content strategy remains strong, with upcoming favorites like Spider-Man poised to sustain the company’s global appeal.
Valuation: At $100 per share, Disney trades at 17x 2026 GAAP EPS. It remains a “quiet underperformer” likely to lag the S&P 500 until it divests its declining TV and cable assets. Do not be lulled into complacency; a deep dive is coming soon.
Interesting Recent News
‘Zootopia 2’ Becomes the Highest-Grossing Animated MPA Film of All Time Globally
The film has shattered box office records, racking up over $1.8 billion globally.
It surpassed Inside Out 2 to become the highest-grossing animated MPA film in history.
The trailer for the upcoming summer tentpole showcases Peter Parker grappling with his isolated new reality.
It previews a grittier tone, bringing in street-level characters like the Punisher.
Bob Iger Era Ends; Josh D’Amaro Officially Becomes Disney CEO
Josh D’Amaro, previously the boss of Disney Experiences, has formally taken the reins as Disney’s new CEO this March.
Uber - UBER 0.00%↑
Uber is the backbone of the autonomous vehicle revolution.
NVIDIA Partnership Sets the Stage
I remain bullish on Uber, with the stock rallying slightly to the low $80s following the NVIDIA presentation. At the recent GTC conference, CEO Jensen Huang revealed expanded partnership details: Uber will launch a massive fleet of robotaxis powered by NVIDIA DRIVE AV software across multiple cities by 2028. This commitment establishes Uber as a critical, multi-player ecosystem hub for global autonomous expansion, leading investors to conclude that Uber will be a necessary partner for many autonomous vehicle (AV) companies. This great sign is further supported by the steady stream of AV partnerships, including the recent strategic agreement with Zoox.
Valuation: With the stock trading at about $77 a share, it sits at a reasonably cheap valuation of approximately 18x 2027 GAAP EPS. I have said many times that I maintain Uber will be a long-term winner as autonomous vehicles take more market share. I think it will take time for the market to fully catch up, but as long as revenue and organic ridership growth remain in the double digits, I want to be long on this mobility winner.
Interesting Recent News
Zoox and Uber Announce Strategic Partnership for Autonomous Ride-Hailing
Uber continues to fortify its position as the go-to network for robotaxis by partnering with Amazon’s Zoox.
Nvidia CEO highlights Uber partnership at major AI summit
Nvidia’s recent presentation reinforced Uber’s critical role in deploying autonomous vehicle technology at scale.
Fubo - FUBO 0.00%↑
Fundamentals matter, and Fubo is officially a penny stock.
Fubo is now officially a penny stock, trading at $1.15. I am discontinuing coverage. Our bearish call was correct: the stock has cratered 54% YTD and 62% over the past year. Despite bull arguments that the Hulu + Live TV business would save it, fundamentals have won out. Further compounding its struggle, Fubo recently lost several NBC Sports and Warner channels, stripping subscribers of marquee events like the Olympics and March Madness. I expect the exodus to continue.
Interesting Recent News
The 12 Days of Pitchmas: Why Fubo is fundamentally flawed
Revisit my comprehensive bearish thesis on why the underlying economics of Fubo’s sports-heavy streaming model were never going to work long-term.
Duolingo - DUOL 0.00%↑
The bearish thesis is playing out exactly as expected.
I have no recent updates on Duolingo right now, and I am maintaining my bearish stance. If you missed it, please check out my article from a few weeks ago on February 27th, titled Deflating the Duolingo ($DUOL) Owl. In that piece, I reviewed the Q4 results for the company and provided a post-mortem on the bearish case I laid out during my ‘12 Days of Pitchmas’ series, where I detailed all the reasons why the stock wouldn’t work. Trading at $100 per share, Duolingo stock is down over 42% year-to-date since my bearish recommendation at the end of 2025. I believe a lot of the bearish case has already been priced into the stock, so I am not necessarily expecting the stock to drop sharply from here. However, until I see acceleration in the right KPIs, I think the stock will continue to underperform the S&P 500.
Interesting Recent News
Deflating the Duolingo ($DUOL) Owl
My post-mortem dive into their Q4 results and why the growth metrics are failing to justify the valuation.
Pinterest - PINS 0.00%↑
The ‘Trap Door’ has opened, and Elliott Management is trying to build an exit ramp.
I have no change in my bearish position on Pinterest. Please see my last article, Pinterest ($PINS) Q4 Earnings: The “Value Trap” Trap Door Opens. In that article, I argued that one of the few things that could help save Pinterest was if they explored M&A. On March 3rd, I wrote a note on the Substack app, which I will summarize here, explaining that Elliott Management, the hedge fund, had made a strategic investment. The “Value Trap” I detailed in my Q4 update just got a lot more complicated. Today, Pinterest announced a massive partnership with Elliott Management, confirming my thesis that an acquisition is now the primary path forward for this asset.
The Elliott Playbook: Buybacks & Board Seats
Pinterest is executing a major capital pivot backed by a $1 billion strategic investment from Elliott. Here is how the capital is moving:
Massive Share Repurchases: The company is initiating $2 billion in near-term share repurchases.
Accelerated Buyback (ASR): Of that total, $1 billion will be deployed immediately through an Accelerated Share Repurchase agreement.
Elliott’s Stake: In addition to the $1 billion investment, Elliott will receive an initial delivery of approximately 80% of the total shares expected to be repurchased under the ASR agreement.
Timeline: The ASR transactions are expected to be completed no later than the second quarter of 2026.
The Bottom Line: Activism = Exit Prep
In my Q4 analysis, I argued that PINS’ best hope was an acquisition. Elliott does not step in with $1 billion and a $2 billion buyback mandate just to be a “long-term partner”—they are here to put a floor under the stock price, consolidate control, and likely prep the company for a sale. By shrinking the share count so aggressively, they are making the “per-share” math much more attractive for a potential suitor like Microsoft or Amazon. I remain bearish on the company and think it will underperform for the year until we see more M&A news. However, the stock could go higher if there are talks of a sale or something more drastic. This skepticism persists despite recent results showing global users at a record high of 550 million MAUs and a revenue growth rate jump to 19% in 2024. Otherwise, I still have a bearish stance on the company because I do not think that Elliott Management’s money will help the operations run any better.
Valuation: The stock is currently down approximately 27% year-to-date at about $19 per share. On a GAAP basis, the stock is still not cheap, trading around 21x 2027 GAAP EPS. I would not short this, as I could see it go a lot higher in a takeout, but the business model has its flaws.
Interesting Recent News
Substack Note: Elliott Management’s Investment in Pinterest
My quick breakdown of the strategic capital pivot and what it signals for the board’s intentions.
The Pokemon Theory of Investing
A look back at how strong revenue streams buy companies the time needed to fortify their broader business models.
CONCLUSION
Writing these weekly rundowns gives me a great chance to step back and survey the entire board. When we look across the landscape—from Meta’s ruthless cost-cutting to Netflix’s disciplined M&A avoidance, from Paramount’s daunting integration to Google’s quiet AI dominance—the theme is clear: execution and audience demand dictate the winners.
I want to thank you for joining me for this inaugural edition of the Accrued Interest Weekly Cypher! We covered a lot of ground today, and my goal is to keep connecting these dots for you every single week.
- Accrued Interest
Disclaimer: The information presented in this Substack is for educational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions regarding the prospects of any company discussed here, as I am not a registered investment advisor.
You can always reach me at simeon@accruedint.com.