Welcome to Volume 9 of the Accrued Interest Weekly Cypher for the week ending Aug 23, 2026! Here is a quick rundown of all the articles and videos that I’ve published since the last edition.
Accrued Interest Institutional Is Now Open to New Clients
Bespoke, project-based research for funds, firms, start-ups and individuals. No set scope, no set price.
TLDR: Accrued Interest Institutional is open to new clients today. It’s bespoke, project-based research for funds, firms, and individuals in tech, media, and telecom. No set scope, no set price, we work that out together. Email simeon@accruedint.com to talk through what you need.
More on my background is on my LinkedIn: Simeon McMillan
Read the full update on my services for Accrued Interest Institutional here.
How Wall Street Misread Netflix ($NFLX): My Talk with Tim Rowe on the State of Streaming Podcast
YouTube ($GOOGL) is the only company in Netflix’s weight class. Plus: what Fox ($FOXA) buying Roku ($ROKU) really does to your home screen.
I had a great time joining Tim Rowe on the State of Streaming podcast for a wide-ranging conversation about the state of the media business as we head into the back half of 2026. If you love talking about media as much as I do, then State of Streaming belongs in your rotation. Go subscribe to the show and follow his work at stateofstreaming.com.
During our 30 min conversation, Tim and I covered a variety of topics including :
YouTube ($GOOGL) versus Netflix ($NFLX) fight for attention,
Why the engagement panic misreads what Netflix actually discloses,
What Fox ($FOXA) acquiring Roku ($ROKU) means for the home screen, and
Where I think the Paramount ($PSKY) / Warner Bros. Discovery ($WBD) deal ends up.
For paying subscribers to Accrued Interest: a full, searchable transcript of the entire conversation is available here.
How Much Lower Can AppLovin Fall?
If you own $APP, or you’re eyeing the dip, let’s talk valuation. Here’s my downside case.
Current Situation: As of midday Thursday, Aug. 20 it trades at about $310 a share close to its 52 week low of $303.17 per share. In between quarters, I am going to do a lot more tactical valuation updates for paid subscribers.
If you own AppLovin shares and want to know how much further it can fall, or if you are thinking of buying for the first time - let’s talk valuation.
Read the full APP update here.
ChatGPT Just Stopped Citing Reddit. That Is a Problem for RDDT Stock.
Reddit’s share of ChatGPT citations fell from 3.8% to 0.5% in seven days. At 21.5x 2027 earnings, the stock is not priced for losing its AI leverage.
Current Situation: While everyone was enjoying their end-of-summer vacations, a third party data provider published numbers on Aug 18 that change the narrative. You need to see them. In between earnings reports, I am running more tactical updates like this one for paid subscribers.
If you own Reddit shares or are thinking about buying the Q2 dip, let’s discuss.
Read the full RDDT update here.
TMT Multiple Tracker: Aug 21,2026
Tech and media stock valuations, EPS revisions, and P/E changes. Week of August 21, 2026.
Welcome to the 2nd edition of the Accrued Interest TMT Multiple Tracker. Quick refresher for anyone new: a stock price (P) is earnings (E) times the multiple investors will pay for those earnings (P/E). Most screeners only show you the price move. My tracker separates the two so you can decide for yourself whether your stocks are getting cheaper or not.
Below the paywall: 1) the full multiple grid with 2026 and 2027 estimates, GAAP and adjusted, 2) estimate revisions with both WoW and MTD, and 3) the decomposition that separates what moved each stock, earnings or multiple and a LOT more commentary.
Access the full TMT Multiple Tracker here.
As always, wishing you all the best of luck as the trading week begins. Upgrade to paid below, and stay tuned for more earnings recaps as reports roll in this week!
Relevant tickers: NFLX 0.00%↑, RDDT 0.00%↑, APP 0.00%↑, GOOG 0.00%↑
-Accrued Interest
Disclaimer: The information presented in this Substack is for educational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions regarding the prospects of any company discussed here, as I am not a registered investment advisor.
